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The Dollar
The Dollar is below monthly support without major support until about $94.30.
The Scoreboard
Thailand is up 11% over the last month and still negative and second worse in the world.
Interesting Data
Turkey - TUR 0.00%↑
Turkey cut 50bps more than expected now that inflation is only 35%.
Interesting News
Thailand - THD 0.00%↑
Vietnam - VNM 0.00%↑
Chile - ECH 0.00%↑
UK - EWU 0.00%↑
Since taking office in July 2024, Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s Labour Government has closed three significant trade agreements. We have a full-trade agreement with India, complemented by a sector-specific pact with the United States and a “reset” package with the European Union that eases post-Brexit frictions without re-entering the single market.
The UK–India free-trade agreement
Negotiations began in early 2022 but stalled under the previous Conservative administration. Starmer’s trade secretary Jonathan Reynolds revived the talks on taking office and clinched an “agreement in principle” in May 2025, followed by formal signature during PM Modi’s London visit on 24 July 2025.
Key provisions
Tariff cuts on 90% of UK tariff lines immediately, rising to 99 % of Indian tariff lines over a decade.
Deep services annex: legal, fintech and insurance firms get majority ownership rights in India for the first time.
Mobility: 1,800 new annual business visas for Indian professionals; streamlined social-security contributions for intra-company transfers.
A bilateral investment treaty and data-adequacy deal are mandated within 24 months.
Projected gains include a £25.5 bn jump in bilateral trade by 2040 and cheaper consumer prices on clothing, shoes and food in the UK.
Ratification – The India FTA now moves through scrutiny in Westminster and the Lok Sabha; the EU deal’s SPS chapter will be phased in through secondary legislation; the US accord operates largely via executive powers but could face congressional review after November 2026.
Next targets – Ministers have signalled interest in accession to the Pan-Euro-Med rules-of-origin convention and deepening digital trade rules with Singapore and Japan.
Labour’s early record shows a strategy of fewer, bigger, and sector-focused deals—prioritising market size and political symbolism to rebuild the UK’s post-Brexit trade profile.
South Korea - EWY 0.00%↑
Passport favorite South Korea EWY 0.00%↑ may have a trade deal of its own this week as there is a high level meeting in DC on Friday. The FM and TM will meet with Bessent and Greer. Beef and rice are a sticking point that will be interesting - always remember the importance of domestic politics for the other side!
Japan - EWJ 0.00%↑
Obviously we got the Japan trade deal right after I hit send Tuesday. On the surface it seems like a solid deal for Japan and the market agreed. But none of us know how the investment component will even work. But the auto access for some planes, gas, and ags is clearly a great deal as long as the investment part is decent.
China - FXI 0.00%↑ & Europe - EZU 0.00%↑
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