Resource Drover

Hiding Down Under

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This is a bit abbreviated as following the war and the ramifications is still eating up a lot of my time.

The Dollar

The Dollar has of course rallied hard during the war and that combined with oil flying higher is crushing many oil importing countries. The Dollar was having a rough year until the war broke out but it is now green YTD. I do expect this to peak out when the strait opens back up and for Passport stocks to pick back up. But how long the strait stays closed will have a lot to say about timing there and who to play and who to avoid.

The Scoreboard

The US is still red and beating 16 countries (of 45). Korea is still hanging in there as the big winner and is having a crazy good week - but - they are a big energy importer so a lot of caution is still warranted in my view. Norway has helped us a ton of late of course and thankfully we have some other top 20 exposure. Once this war ends it will be time to go and pick through the wreckage to flip some strait winners for some strait losers.

Interesting Data

Colombia - COLO 0.00%↑

Not a great looking trend breakdown here for Colombian retail sales and we missed expectations by a lot.

Brazil - EWZ 0.00%↑

Brazil finally got to do a rate cut. The problem is this inflation shock coming makes it difficult to do more of them of course. The good news is they at least enter it with high real rates I guess.

Interesting News

China - MCHI 0.00%↑

This is going to be a big strength for China - they export as much green stuff as the US exports petroleum stuff. Both are suddenly valuable.

Interesting Charts