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Argentina's Election Risk

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The Dollar

The Dollar continues to essentially go sideways but is near the top of the range of the last few months. Keep the tariff SCOTUS decision in mind because if they call the IEEPA tariffs unconstitutional - it likely creates a jump in yields/USD.

The Scoreboard

The US is now beating a dozen countries. Korea on top by a lot and Argentina at the bottom.

Interesting Data

Canada - EWA 0.00%↑

Inflation in Canada is jumping.

Malaysia - EWM 0.00%↑

Inflation is only 1.5% in Malaysia - but that was higher than last month and higher than expected.

UK - EWU 0.00%↑

The UK’s inflation was better than expected.

Argentina - ARGT 0.00%↑

Activity in Argentina continues to melt lower.

Germany - EWG 0.00%↑

Impressive PMI in Germany.

Interesting News

Indonesia

Indonesia Records $86.5 Billion in Investments as of September

Investment reached 75% of Indonesia’s full-year target by September. Despite early-year tensions, both domestic and foreign capital continue to flow in strongly, with mining and infrastructure projects playing a leading role.​

China

China’s Q3 GDP Growth Slows as Five-Year Plan Targets Tech, Self-Reliance

GDP is tracking close to the 5% annual target amid volatility, renewed US trade uncertainty, and growth in exports to non-US partners. Leaders double down on manufacturing and manufacturing innovation.​

Colombia

Colombia Executes Largest-Ever Domestic Debt Swap Amid Fiscal Challenges

Swapping $11.2 billion in debts for longer maturities, Colombia aims to manage strained public finances while inflation pressures grow and the COLCAP index nears a 15-year high.​

South Korea

Kospi Hits Record High Amid Chipmaker Rally and US Trade Optimism

The KOSPI 200 index has surged 69% year-to-date as foreign investment floods into tech stocks, fueled by optimism over a major trade deal with the US and ongoing strong export performance.​

Philippines

Peso Drops to 9-Month Low, Stock Market Sinks as Economy Slows

The peso fell to its lowest since January, the PSE index slipped, and the World Bank flagged economic slowing amid political controversy and financial market softness.​​

Brazil

Brazil’s Inflation Softens to 5%; Economic Growth Decelerates

Inflation eases, bolstering central bank confidence to maintain the 15% interest rate. GDP growth projections now stand at 2.2% for 2025 as policy remains tight amid global and domestic risks.​

Qatar

Strong Bank Results Boost Market Confidence Despite Slowdown

Qatar’s stock index climbed on positive earnings from key banks, with optimism for further gains as quarterly results roll in and GCC capital market cooperation deepens.

Interesting Charts

Europe - EZU 0.00%↑

Japan - EWJ 0.00%↑

Japan is doing great - but not so much the smalls.

Indonesia - EIDO 0.00%↑

UK - EWU 0.00%↑

Philippines - EPHE 0.00%↑

Not great given the year the USD is having.

India - INDA 0.00%↑

Turkey - TUR 0.00%↑

France - EWQ 0.00%↑

Every time a politician in France mentions saving a few bucks there is a political ruption and they have to say just kidding. But the ratings folks are not kidding and at least on a small scale neither are bond investors.

Price Charts

India - INDA 0.00%↑

We tested the breakout this week but came back down.

Finland - EFNL 0.00%↑

Getting the breakout I was hoping for in Finland.

Argentina Risk