What I am Doing About the Vietnam Deal

Time to go long Olaf

Jul 03, 2025

∙ Paid

This letter reads WAY better in your browser than in your email - so do yourself a favor and click on the title above to read it that way.

Are we going to replicate that in 2H? Probably not!

And Passport fiscal just started…

The Dollar

Sentiment check…

You know what I think/worry here.

What if tariffs do cause some summer inflation?

The Scoreboard

The US is now beating 9 countries so a very strong month here lately. But even there - the US trails on the month… 6 different countries.

Interesting Data

Thailand - THD 0.00%↑

Politics are not great in Thailand right now - but exports are.

Italy - EWI 0.00%↑

Italy is running a massive budget deficit so far this year.

Argentina - ARGT 0.00%↑

Argentine data continues to impress.

Interesting News

Good trade over time but I think a tactical misstep on timing. There is a time to extrapolate Dollar weakness - and it is not when sentiment/positioning are at extremes.

Colombia is hard to be invested in - but so far a ton of bad news has hit lately and COLO 0.00%↑ is holding up okay. So I am staying long. In important news in Colombia - Congress has passed a Petro backed pension reform bill (just needs judicial stamp). What the pension reform bill does:

Strengthens the state pension fund (Colpensiones): Individuals earning less than $800 per month will be required to contribute to Colpensiones, ensuring that those with little or no retirement savings will receive benefits.
Guarantees benefits for those without sufficient savings: The reform is designed to provide a safety net for people who lack adequate retirement savings or have none at all.
Reduces eligibility requirements for women with children: The bill lowers the number of weeks women with children must accumulate to qualify for pensions. This change will not affect those who have already accrued enough weeks for retirement.
Maintains current retirement ages: The pension age remains unchanged at 62 for men and 57 for women.
Expands coverage: The government estimates that about 2.6 million older adults will benefit from the new provisions for those with insufficient pension savings.
Creates new pillars for pension eligibility: The reform introduces a solidarity pillar, semi-contributory pillar, contributory pillar, and voluntary savings pillar to expand coverage and flexibility.
Establishes a basic income for the elderly in poverty: Those who do not qualify for a regular pension may receive a basic monthly income of about COP 225,000 (approximately US$55), with additional benefits for mothers.
Allows flexibility between systems: Individuals with at least 750 weeks of contributions (women) or 900 weeks (men) by June 30, 2025, can remain under current rules or transfer within a two-year window after mandatory advisory sessions.
Creates a reserve fund: A savings mechanism managed by the central bank will support the contributory pillar.

This bill does indeed pressure the deficit longer term but it raises some money in the near term which will keep it from being a deficit issue over the next few years.